Here is my take on how the superconferences could take shape:
- Texas A&M to the SEC. Done deal.
- Oklahoma, opearating independently, accepts an offer to join the PAC-12 (becomes the PAC-13).
- Nervous Texas Tech and Oklahoma State bolt west, and join the PAC-15.
- The PAC-15 and the SEC court Texas, but Texas is slow on making a decision.
- The PAC-15 hints at adding BYU to gain leverage with Texas, but neither the PAC-15 or UT makes a firm commitment.
- Meanwhile, the SEC and B1G see that college football has crossed the point of no return regarding expansion.
- The B1G adds Missouri, Rutgers and Boston College (for a total of 15 teams).
- The B1G courts Nortre Dame, who doesn't accept or reject, and is content to sit on the sideline to let the realignment mess unfold.
- The SEC invites Virginia Tech as a 14th member; Tech accepts.
- To avoid further poaching, the ACC and Big East combine to form a superconference; several schools - including Louisville, Miami (FL) and Cincinnati are slow to agree to the merger, hoping for invites from either the B1G or SEC. No offers are made.
At this point we would have:
- SEC: 14 teams
- B1G: 15 teams
- PAC-15
- Big East + ACC: 17 teams (for football)
Strong indpendents: Texas, Notre Dame
Left out in the cold (so far): BYU, Kansas, Kansas Sate, Iowa State, Baylor
* * *
The kabuki dance continues:
- The B1G agrees to review applications by Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Louisville in the hopes of getting Notre Dame to accept a formal invitation; frustrated with Notre Dame's dithering, the B1G makes a formal offer to Pittsburgh, who accepts. The B1G is complete at 16 teams. The Big East+ACC is now 16 football programs.
- Still clinging to the hope that Texas won't abandon what is left of the Big 12, Kansas leads an effort to recruit other schools to form a new Big 12, with or without Texas. A constellation begins to form: TCU, BYU, Houston, SMU, Colorado State, Boise State, Wyoming and Air Force. All except BYU accept the offer. With Texas still a part of the conference, the Big 12 once again has twelve teams. The schools from the original Big 12 keep the lion's share of the television revenues from their existing contract.
- BYU is non-commital to the Big 12, still hoping for a PAC-15 invitation.
- The BCS, in an attempt to force the final stages of realignment, changes its format so that only superconferences with at least 14 teams and a title game will earn automatic bids to the BCS. Notre Dame keeps their current AQ criteria. After hard negotiations, Texas will not offered the same status if it goes independent.
- Texas, seeing a much more difficult path to football national championships in the the new arrangement, leaves the Big 12 with most of their ESPN contract in tact. They claim they'll be happy to be an independent, the "Notre Dame of the South", even without special AQ criteria. Behind the scenes, Texas works out an agreement with the PAC-15, and joins as the 16th member.
- Jilted BYU agrees to join the reformulated Big 12. (which now has 11 teams)
- The SEC, with only 14 teams and happy that Texas took their toys elsewhere, announces it won't expand for the sake of expansion; with few jewels left to pick from, they stay at 14.
At this point we would have:
- SEC: 14 teams
- B1G: 16 teams
- PAC-16
- Big East + ACC: 16 teams (for football)
- Big 12: 12 teams (once again!)
Indpendent: Notre Dame
* * *
- Wanting a spot in the BCS, and with pick of what remains of the litter, the Big 12 courts additional schools: UCF and Tulsa accept. While clearly a weak sister in the superconference system, through tireless lobbying the Big 12 earns an AQ spot.
- What's left of the other conferences fuse together in regional superconferences -- but without AQ status.
- Each superconference champion (5) earns a bid to the BCS.
- The five highest ranked non-champions each BCS bids; non-AQ schools would have similar criteria as in today's format
Everyone happy?
SEC EAST
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Virginia Tech
SEC West
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
B1G Legends
Illinois
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Missouri
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
B1G Leaders
Boston College
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Rutgers
Wisconsin
PAC-16 North
California
Colorado
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Utah
Washington
Washington State
PAC-16 South
Arizona
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Big ACC "A"
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Maryland
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Syracuse
West Virginia
Big ACC "B"
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
South Florida
Virginia
Wake Forest
Big 12 North
Air Force
Boise State
Colorado State
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Wyoming
Big 12 South
Baylor
BYU
Houston
SMU
TCU
Tulsa
UCF
Conference USA + Sun Belt East
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Marshall
Middle Tennessee
Southern Miss
Troy
Conference USA + Sun Belt West
Arkansas State
Louisiana - Lafayette
Louisiana - Monroe
Memphis
Tulane
UAB
Western Kentucky
Mountain West + WAC East
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Texas (moved from Sun Belt)
Rice (moved from Conference USA)
Utah State
UTEP (moved from Mountain West)
Mountain West + WAC East
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
Nevada
San Diego State
San Jose State
UNLV
