Why Israel Will Bomb Iran

Slate's David Samuels has a long and quite detailed article explaining why he thinks Israel will strike Iran. (a belief I also share) If you have an interest in this bit of foreign affairs -- and you should -- the article will be interesting reading. Here is one of the most prescient paragraphs in the article:

The inevitability of a future Palestinian state is the most powerful argument for the inevitability of an Israeli attack on Iran—unless the Iranian nuclear program is stopped by other means. Taking out the Iranian nuclear program is the one obvious avenue by which Israel can turn the debilitating drip-drip-drip of territorial giveaways and international condemnation into a convincing appearance of strength. Destroying a respectable number of Iranian centrifuges will end Iran's march to regional hegemony and eliminate Israel's chief rival for America's affections while also allowing Israel to gain the legal and demographic benefits of a Palestinian state with a minimum of long-term risk.

One point Samuels doesn't make, but will be a factor in Israel's decision, is how the Obama administration handles Israel. If Israel gets the cold shoulder from the U.S., it may work with some of its neighbours (Egypt, Saudi Arabia) to gain tacit approval for a strike. If the U.S. can get Iran to the negotiating table, Israel may feel forced to show they are not bluffing.

One final point: what good is a bluff if your opponent is not inclinded to fold? It does not seem that Iran will back down from its position, which leaves only two options: large concessions from the West that will compel Iran to scrap its nuclear ambitions (but likely pursue them in secret); or a strike against Iran to show Israel is serious about curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions.